“I believe I’m the best qualified to govern and I think I’m the best qualified to win, but there are other people who could beat Trump, too.”
Joe Biden
This week’s Republican convention witnesses the coronation of Donald Trump despite having proven he is unfit to return to the presidency.
During and since his tenure, his words and actions showed a complete disregard for his oath of office and lack of dedication to our Constitution, at one point suggesting, “suspending” it. The former president’s words endorsing violence against protestors from his 2016 campaign up through and including his calling those insurrectionists who stormed the capitol on January 6th patriots have normalized violence on both the Right and Left as an acceptable course of action if people’s objectives cannot be achieve at the ballot box or through legislation. Ironically, more than anyone else, he likely contributed to the assassination attempt on his life.
Referring to the media and almost anyone who disagrees with him as “enemies of the people,” Trump has played an enormous role in the partisan divisiveness in the country.
From insulting John McCains POW years to refusing to visit a World War I veterans cemetery in France to questioning the sacrifice of those buried at Arlington National Cemetery to excluding wounded veterans from White House events should disqualify him as a Commander-in-Chief. Finally, his manufactured successes of his presidency, exceeded by his 35,000-plus documented lies and misstatements of facts, while “red meat” for his MAGA cult-followers, should suggest people question his often banal and unsubstantiated pronouncements.
If reelected, he is committed appointing people based solely on personal loyalty to him rather than intelligence, competency or their respect for and dedication to the Constitution.
What should have been a “slam dunk” November victory for Biden is, at best, rapidly becoming a high-risk gamble for all Democrats.
A growing percentage of swing and predictably Democratic and Independent voters who previously supported the president, are more worried about inflation, Republican-fed fears of immigrants, and Biden’s age and perceived mental capacity than the autocratic dangers Trump and his Project 2025 fellow-travelers pose to individual liberties, our democratic institutions and his possible appointments to the Supreme Court.
Broadcast and cable news reports of national polls showing a virtually tied race, favoring Trump by a 47% to 45% margin are unfortunately irrelevant, as our presidents are not elected on the basis of the popular vote. Rather, Trump continues to enjoy a consistent polling advantage of between two and six points in seven key battleground states where the outcome of the election is likely to be decided.
By comparison, Biden was leading in nearly all of those same polls in July 2020. While he won the popular 2020 vote by 7-plus million votes (4.54%), in the seven battleground states, his margin of victory was a mere 0.25% (384,855 total votes and less than13,000 votes in two states).
While polling is an imprecise science and their ability to predict future election results has not always been accurate … as some of those polled fail to respond, others lie to the pollsters, and still others are truly undecided; how far before an election they were taken; late-October surprises; and ultimately turnout. Still, they seem to be the best tool for taking the political temperature of the electorate as a point in time.
Trump’s demeanor immediately after a bullet came within inches of ending his life … fist-pumps with blood running down is face and shouts of, “Fight! Fight! Fight!” have created an iconic and likely defining image of the campaign and an aura of martyrdom around him. Coming just before the Republican Convention he will possibly see a noticeable bump in his poll numbers … further narrowing any logical path to victory for President Biden,
His announcement of JD Vance as his running mate, gives Trump the luxury to talk about unity and sound more moderate on controversial issues while Vance can be his campaign’s attack dog spewing ultra-conservative views on social issues ranging from women’s reproductive, LBGTQ+ and voting rights – to furthering Christian Nationalists’ theological assault on democracy (evidenced by his ties to “Catholic Integralism”, an intellectual movement that prefers a “soft power” approach to exerting Christian influence over society) to his naïve and internationally, potentially-dangerous “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” statement, echoes of Charles Lindbergh and the America First Movement prior to Pearl Harbor.
Despite having no margin for any even small missteps between now and November, the president continues to loudly proclaim he’s not going anywhere and believes he is the only person who can defeat Trump. Unfortunately for Democrats, calls for the president to step aside continue to grow among member of Congress, major donors and notably Independent and even some Democratic voters. Conversations with candidates for both state offices and Congress, echo concerns Biden’s continued candidacy could result in a Trump victory and disastrous down-ballot consequences for Democrats.
However, perhaps two telling statements he made last week suggest reality might be having an effect; “there are other people who could beat Trump, too,” and if a number of polls and feedback form voters indicated to him, “there’s no way you can win,” he might reevaluate his position.
If President Biden truly believes Trump is an “existential’ threat to democracy,” he needs to decide whether his ego or the country are more important.
At the end of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, Elizabeth Willing Powel reportedly asked Benjamin Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” to which he replied, “A Republic, if you can keep it.”
The urgent question for Joe Biden, delegates to the upcoming Democratic National Convention and for voters in November is whether we can keep our very fragile Republic!
